BIGGEST POST SEASON SERIES UPSETS OF WILD CARD ERA

I admit, it doesn't look good for the Giants.

I am rooting for them to win the National League Pennant and any team that has Tim Lincecum pitching twice in a series can't be counted COMPLETELY out.

But it will be a longshot.

There is NOTHING the Phillies can't do now and their lineup is a little more fearsome than the Braves.

A safe bet would be the Phillies winning in 5 games.

But every once in a while there is a playoff match up that looks like a total mismatch (even worse than this Phillies/Giants NLCS) that turns out to raise a middle finger to all of the predictions.

Obviously there are some great historical upsets... like the 1926 Cardinals, the 1954 Giants, the 1969 Mets and 1988 L. A. Dodgers come to mind.

But let's look just at the Wild Card era (1995 to present) and see which series looked like no brainers and it turned out the experts had no brain.

BIGGEST POST SEASON UPSETS OF WILD CARD ERA


1997 ALCS
INDIANS defeat ORIOLES

The Orioles led wire to wire and won 98 games. The Indians won only 86 games and barely squeaked past the Yankees in the Division Series.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Orioles shut out the Indians in Game 1 and had a 2 run lead in the 8th inning of Game 2.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
Marquis Grissom hit a 3 run shot off of Armando Benitez in Game 2. Then the Indians won in 12 for Game 3 and finished Game 4 with a walk off win.

THE DAGGER
The Indians overcame a brilliant Mike Mussina outing in Game 6 to win in 11 innings and stunned Baltimore.

1997 NLCS
MARLINS defeat BRAVES

The Braves had won 4 of the last 5 pennants. With a 101 win season, a 5th pennant in 6 years looked all but assured. The Marlins won 92 games and the wild card, but they were playing the varsity team and looked over matched.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Marlins won a pair early but the Braves tied the series when Denny Neagle threw a complete game shutout in Game 4. With Maddux and Glavine looming in Games 5 and 6, it looked bleak for Florida.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
The late Eric Gregg called any pitch that Livan Hernandez threw a strike as long as it didn't hit the ground. He struck out 15, giving the Marlins the lead.

THE DAGGER
Tom Glavine imploded in the first inning of Game 6, letting the first four batters read base and having them all score before the Braves even came to bat. It would be all Kevin Brown would need to clinch the pennant.

2002 American League Division Series
ANGELS defeat YANKEES

The Yankees were in full dynasty mode. The Angels had never won a post season series and looked like a bunch of inexperienced kids heading into Yankee Stadium. No doubt this would be a forgettable series much like the Yankees manhandling the Rangers all of those years.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Yankees rallied to win game 1 in the 8th and took a lead late into Game 2. It was going to be a sweep a la the Yankees/Texas series of the past.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
Garret Anderson and Troy Glaus hit back to back 8th inning homers off of El Duque to take the lead in Game 2. Then in Game 3, the Yankees blow an early 6-1 lead and the Angels break the tie with a Tim Salmon home run in the 8th.

THE DAGGER
David Wells melts down in the 5th inning of Game 4 as the Angels score 8 times and go on to win their first ever playoff series.

2002 American League Division Series
TWINS defeat A'S

Thanks to a 20 game winning streak, an MVP season from Miguel Tejada, a Cy Young season from Barry Zito and 103 wins, the A's looked poised to stampede into the ALCS. The Twins, who were rumored to be contracted just the year before, were just happy to be there.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
A series of Twins blunders gave the A's a 5-1 lead in Game 1, making it clear that this series was Men versus Boys. Later, the A's were up 2-1 with Hudson and Mulder ready for games 4 and 5.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
The Twins came back to win that Game 1 and scored 11 unanswered runs in Game 4.

THE DAGGER
A. J. Pierzynski's homer and David Ortiz's double broke open a tense Game 5 in the 9th. The Twins would need every run as Mark Ellis homered to bring the A's to within 1 but Ray Durham, the potential series winning run, popped up to give the upstart Twins a most unlikely series win.

2006 American League Division Series
TIGERS defeat YANKEES

The Tigers slumped badly down the stretch and went from a lock for the Division title, home field in the Division Series and playing the A's to claiming the Wild Card and going to New York to face a stacked and eager to wipe away 2004 from their memories Yankee team. They were no match.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Yankees torched Nate Robertson for 5 runs in the third and cruised to an 8-4 Game 1 win. Then Johnny Damon hit a three run shot in Game 2 and it looked like the sweep was on.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
Carlos Guillen hit a game tying homer off of Mike Mussina but Curtis Granderson drove the Yankees crazy. He got a run scoring sacrifice fly in Game 2 and gave the Tigers the lead with an RBI triple. In Game 3, former Yankee Kenny Rogers out pitched Randy Johnson in what turned out to be the Big Unit's final game for New York.

THE DAGGER
Joe Torre dropped the slumping Alex Rodriguez to 8th in the fourth game and gave the starting assignment to Jaret Wright. He was bombed and the Tigers finished the Yankees in 4.

2006 NLCS

CARDINALS defeat METS

With the Yankees eliminated in the Division Series, the Mets looked poised to capture the city's baseball heart. Neither American League team (the Tigers nor the A's) looked dominating and all they had to do for the pennant was beat an injured and underachieving Cardinals team who won only 83 games.

IT LOOKED BAD WHEN:
The Mets shut out the Cardinals in Game 1, scored 3 in the first of Game 2 and were tied going into the 9th of Game 2. The Mets were clearly in control.

THINGS TURNED AROUND WHEN:
So Taguchi hit a go ahead 9th inning homer off of Billy Wagner to give the Cardinals a Game 2 win. Then, behind Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, took a 3-2 series lead back to Shea.

THE DAGGER
The Mets forced a Game 7 which was an all time classic. Endy Chavez preserved a tie with a mindboggling catch that turned a go ahead homer into an inning ending double play. Yadier Molina homered in the 9th to give St. Louis the win and rookie Adam Wainwright got Carlos Beltran to strikeout looking with the bases loaded in the 9th to win the pennant. The Mets have never recovered.



Interestingly, there are 6 upsets but only 3 different years. They've come in pairs.

Are the Giants as unlikely to win as the 2006 Cardinals or Tigers?
Probably not.

So there is hope.

Maybe one of the Giants pitchers will get Ryan Howard looking to end the series!

Hey Adam Wainwright. Now would be a good time to WANT that Cy Young

At one point Adam Wainwright looked like the Cy Young Front Runner...

He was 17-6 with an ERA of 1.99 on August 11 and it looked like a 20 win season and a sub 2.00 ERA were in his future.

Then it looked like he decided to make a conscious effort to hand it over to Roy Halladay.
He had been 1-5 since and his ERA has jumped up .51 points.

Now of course he is still in the mix for the Cy Young and some of his losses were tough luck losses.

But a big win here would go a long way. A nice domination of the Padres would land him win #19 and make his ERA closer to 2.00 than 3.00. And the fans would love him for it...

Not the Cardinals fans... GIANTS fans.

Giant fans have images of a Division Title dancing in their heads and the Padres going on another skid would go a long way to making that true.

So come on! It is fun to be loved. Cardinals fans will love you forever if for no other reason than clinching the 2006 World Series.

You can have San Francisco fans love you too and you don't even need to change uniforms.

So come on, Adam. A Cy Young would look good on your mantle. Go for it tomorrow.

Hey Adam... why don't you want to win the Cy Young Award?

For the second straight start, Adam Wainwright can't make it to the 6th inning and the chance for win #18 goes down the toilet again. Unless the Cardinals go on a mongo comeback, he'll have lost his 5 straight decision.

So when he was 17-6 with a 1.99 ERA, the Cy Young was his to lose.
Barring a Reds bullpen collapse he will be 17-10 with a 2.34 ERA... great numbers to be sure, but not good enough to call the race.

Does he have an incentive clause to NOT win it?

Most 20 game winners in 90 years? It’s possible

In 2006, when 16 wins was good enough to lead the National League, it seemed like the 20 game winner was going the way of the Dodo and the Liberal Republican.

But win #20 is making a comeback in 2010... or at least it COULD be.

Now, of course, I know the win total isn't the end all and be all of a pitcher's greatness.
I've been advocating Felix Hernandez to win the Cy Young Award even though his only has a 10-10 record.

And in my plea to put Bert Blyleven in the Hall of Fame I criticized the emphasis on wins when evaluating his career.

That being said, "20 Game Winner" still has a nice ring to it.

It is kind of like "Oscar Winning Director." Now is Ron Howard, who won the Oscar, a better director than Alfred Hitchcock, who never won it? Of course not. But it still looks and sounds cool.

And with September now starting, there are a few legit candidates to win 20 and a few long shots.

And if they ALL come through, then we will see the most 20 game winners since 1920.

With about 30 games left, each of these pitchers will get about 5 or 6 more starts. Some will have to run the table... which is unlikely, but you never know...

Let's break it down and see who is close.


2 More Wins - Currently at 18 wins... would be STUNNED if he falls short.

C. C. Sabathia







3 More Wins - Currently at 17 wins... One more good streak and you've got it.

Ubaldo Jimenez





Adam Wainwright





4 More Wins - Currently at 16 wins... Keep pitching well and hope the bullpen doesn't blow one or two.

Roy Halladay





Phil Hughes






5 More Wins - Currently at 15 wins... May be a reach, but a dazzling September could send them into the Cy Young stratosphere. NOTHING can go wrong.

Clay Buchholz





Tim Hudson





Carl Pavano





David Price





6 More Wins - Currently at 14... OK, damn near impossible. But if they go on a winning streak and maybe the manager gives them an extra start down the stretch... maybe?

Ricky Nolasco





Bronson Arroyo





Justin Verlander





C. J. Wilson





Trevor Cahill





Ervin Santana





Chris Carpenter





Jon Lester





That is 17 potential 20 game winners (some MUCH more likely than others.)

Now there were no 20 game winners last year.
Since the leagues expanded to 3 divisions in 1994, most teams have 5 man rotations, pitch counts and bullpen specialization that cuts down on the big win totals.

Going backwards from last year, here are the number of 20 game winners for each year back to 1994.


2009 – 0
2008 – 4 (Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb, Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay)
2007 – 1 (Josh Beckett)
2006 – 0
2005 – 4 (Dontrelle Willis, Bartolo Colon, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt)
2004 – 3 (Curt Schilling, Roy Oswalt, Johan Santana)
2003 – 5 (Roy Halladay, Russ Ortiz, Esteban Loaiza, Andy Pettitte, Jamie Moyer)
2002 – 6 (Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, Curt Schilling, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Bartolo Colon)
2001 – 7 (Curt Schilling, Matt Morris, Mark Mulder, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, Jon Lieber)
2000 – 4 (Tom Glavine, Tim Hudson, David Wells, Darryl Kile)
1999 – 3 (Pedro Martinez, Mike Hampton, Jose Lima)
1998 – 4 (Roger Clemens, David Cone, Rick Helling, Tom Glavine)
1997 – 4 (Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Denny Neagle, Brad Radke)
1996 – 3 (John Smoltz, Andy Pettitte, Pat Hentgen)
1995 – 0
1994 – 0


1994 and 1995 were shortened seasons due to the labor strife (although Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina won 19 in '95... all the more impressive that it was a 144 game season.)

But there were some seasons with quite a few 20 game winners... topping out at 7 in 2001.

Going back even further, here are the last time there were higher numbers of 20 game winners in a season.

Last time with 8 twenty game winners– 1978
(Ron Guidry, Mike Caldwell, Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Dennis Leonard, Ed Figueroa, Ross Grimsley, Dennis Eckersley)

Last time with 9 twenty game winners – 1977
(Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Rick Reuschel, Bob Forsch, John Candelaria, Tommy John, Dave Goltz, Dennis Leonard)

Last time with 11 twenty game winners– 1974
(Catfish Hunter, Fergie Jenkins, Nolan Ryan, Luis Tiant, Mike Cuellar, Steve Busby, Jim Kaat, Gaylord Perry, Andy Messersmith, Wilber Wood, Phil Niekro)

Last time with 13 twenty game winners– 1973
(Ron Bryant, Wilber Wood, Joe Coleman, Jim Palmer, Catfish Hunter, Ken Holtzman, Nolan Ryan, Bill Singer, Paul Splittorff, Bert Blyleven, Vida Blue, Luis Tiant, Jim Colborn)

Last time with 14 twenty game winners– 1971
(Mickey Lolich, Vida Blue, Fergie Jenkins, Wilbur Wood, Catfish Hunter, Dave McNally, Andy Messersmith, Jom Palmer, Steve Carlton, Pat Dobson, Al Downing, Joe Coleman, Tom Seaver, Mike Cuellar)

Last time with 15 twenty game winners– 1969
(Tom Seaver, Denny McLain, Mike Cuellar, Phil Niekro, Juan Marichal, Fergie Jenkins, Dave Boswell, Mel Stottlemyre, Larry Dierker, Claude Osteen, Bill Singer, Jim Perry, Bill Hands, Dave McNally, Bob Gibson)

Last time with 17 twenty game winners– 1920
(Grover Cleveland Alexander, Wilbur Cooper, Burleigh Grimes, Art Nehf, Fred Toney, Jesse Barnes, Spittin’ Bill Doak, Jim Bagby, Carl Mays, Stan Coveleski, Red Faber, Lefty Williams, Eddie Cicotte, Dickey Kerr, Ray Caldwell, Bob Shawkey, Urban Shocker)

You read those names right... two of the condemned 1919 Black Sox were on the list the last time there were 17 twenty game winners!

1920, back when Babe Ruth was a NEW acquisition for the Yankees.

Now are all 17 going to come through.
Probably not... but with pitching taking center stage again, I wouldn't mind seeing a few 20 game winners, even if it isn't the barometer of greatness it used to be.

Adam Wainwright continues to show his amazing generosity

Once again, Adam Wainwright could have taken all momentum of the Cy Young award, put it under his wing and make it his to lose.

Instead he lost his 3rd straight chance to win his 18th.
His ERA jumped from 2.18 to 2.30 and he only lasted 5 innings against the Nats and the Cardinals have fallen to 4 games back in the loss column.

Aces are supposed to face sub par teams and STOP losing streaks.

Instead Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Carpenter and Tim Hudson are all still hanging around with Cy Young ambitions and you are keeping their hope alive.

Man... he is nice, isn't he?

Adam Wainwright. Don't you WANT to win the Cy Young?

Seriously... you had the chance to take the prohibitive lead in the Cy Young. A chance for your 18th win. A chance to bring the ole ERA closer to 2.00.

And the Cardinals gave you the lead against the Pirates... if there is a worse team, then they don't play in the majors.

And yeah you went 7 innings, but you couldn't hold onto the lead and let up 4 runs to the lowly Bucs.

I like the Cy Young race being interesting... but I wouldn't mind seeing someone take charge.