Are the A's teasing me again?

Two seasons ago, I stuck my neck out in my 2009 Divisional picks by going with the Oakland A's to win the West. We had just come off seasons where teams like the Angels, the Marlins, the Tigers, the struggling Cardinals, the Rockies and Rays had won pennants that confounded the experts.

So I thought "Why not go against the grain? If I am right with my pick, then I look like a genius."

Then again, if the pick flops, then I look like a moron.

I had the 2009 Oakland Athletics winning the World Series.
They finished in dead last place, 22 games behind the Angels.

WHOOPS!

But now I am looking at this team, and I can't help but wonder if I should pick them again.

They just added Brian Fuentes to the roster and he should make their bullpen pretty damn deep. Andrew Bailey, Grant Balfour, Brad Ziegler and Brian Fuentes in the pen?

Closing out a rotation of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson?

(I am not going to include Rich Harden. Any day he is NOT on the disabled list is a bonus.)

Couple that with Hideki Matsui and a few other bats added to the lineup... Texas losing Cliff Lee and the Angels not being able to sign anyone and Seattle in flux...

Dare I do it?
Dare I make the pick again?

My 2009 picks of Oakland and Cincinnati doesn't look so outlandish for 2011.

But can I pick Oakland?
Or are they teasing me.

Maybe I'll pick the Mariners.

Rest in Peace, Red the Fish

Today we lost our fish, Red.
My son Aidan named him. He took one look at him and said "He's red. So his name is Red." And how is that less of a creative name than "Sully."

Before the 2010 postseason, I held up a logo of a baseball team on either side of his tank. Whichever side he swam to, I wrote down as his prediction.

He was pretty good.
In fact he predicted EVERY SINGLE post season series correctly until the World Series.
He picked the Rangers to win the World Series.
My wife picked the Giants and won.

Well, now he is gone... flushed to the great unknown.

You were a good fish, Red. We'll miss you. And you were a hell of a lot better at picking playoff series than me.

Rest in peace.

Will by NL Central pick be once again a year early?

This September I pointed out that I am not very good at picking who will actually win the NL Central, but I AM good at figuring out that the consensus pick will probably fall short.

In 2009 everyone and their cow was picking the Cubs to win.
I picked the Reds. The Cardinals won (I picked the Cardinals for the Wild Card.)

In 2010 everyone and their moose was picking the Cardinals to win.
I picked the Brewers. The Reds won.

But with Zack Greinke going to the Brewers, I can't help but wonder if the Brewers and their solid rotation and terrific line up, should be considered to be the favorites in a very winnable NL Central.

And would my pick be a year premature?
Am I the baseball predicting equivalent to that show Early Edition?

There's only one way to test it:
I am going to pick the Pittsburgh Pirates to win the 2011 NL Central.
If the Brewers win in 2011 and the Pirates win in 2012, I will be FREAKED OUT!

MY WIFE DEFEATS A FISH!!!!

As I wrote before, my wife and my fish both predicted a Giants and Rangers World Series.

My wife knows a little more than my fish, and yesterday she proved it once and for all.

Wifey picked the Giants to win it.
Red the fish picked the Rangers.

And I've never seen my wife more proud than when she reigned supreme over a fish.

I can make fun of wifey half watching the games and my fish swimming around... but my picks sucked.

I bow to the superior baseball intellects.

It's FISH versus WIFE

My playoff predictions this year were off... As they always are. (So much for my Phillies/Tampa Bay rematch.)

I got the predictions of my two kids, my sister in law and a random coin toss. None of us got a Rangers/Giants match up.


Do you know who DID pick the Giants and the Rangers to win the pennant?

MY WIFE, LISA!

(She picked the Giants because inactive left hander Barry Zito does yoga and the Rangers because she likes Friday Night Lights.)

And do you know who else picked the Giants and the Rangers?

MY FISH, RED!

I held up pieces of paper with pictures of the team logos on either end of Red's tank. Which ever direction he swam to, I marked down as his pick.

Well guess what?
ALL OF THE FISH'S PICKS HAVE BEEN RIGHT!

But here's the rub:
My wife picked the Giants to win the World Series.

My fish picked the Rangers to win the World Series.

Lisa is already talking smack... threatening to eat sushi in front of Red if the Giants win.

So now in our household, it has come down to this. Who will reign supreme? Whose skills of prediction will win out.

Will it be my wife?
Or my fish?

I hope it is my wife.
Why?

Because first of all, I am rooting for the Giants.

And secondly, unlike Luca Brasi, I do NOT sleep with the fishes.

I hate to say "I told you so"... no wait! I LOVE saying "I told you so"

10 days ago I wrote a blog post... basically calling Joe Girardi's pitching rotation for the ALCS insane.

I thought that lining up the rotation so Sabathia would not be available to pitch Game 7, flip flopping Hughes and Pettitte so Andy faced Cliff Lee and throwing A. J. Burnett in Game 4 gave the Rangers a clear and almost unfair advantage in Games 3, 4 and 7.

In other words, Girardi had set up the rotation so the Yankees had no margin for error in Games 1, 2, 5 and 6.

I said that Sabathia needed to throw games 1, 4 and 7. (Spare me the "he's tired" act. He had thrown 6 innings over 2 weeks.)

They needed Pettitte to throw game 2 (because he was their second best option) and start A. J. Burnett against Cliff Lee (consolidating their miserable match ups).

Hughes (available for bullpen work in Games 1 and 2) would be on full rest for Game 5... Pettitte 6 and Sabathia 7th.

Instead they sent out the mismatched 3 and 4 games and lost by a combination of 18-3 in those two games.

The fact that the Yankees were outscored 31-6 in the four losses shows that the pitching kinda sorta favored the Yankees.

It didn't have to be that bad.

I told them so.

How did we do with our picks? (And how did the fish do?)

Before the playoffs began, I made my post season picks… and compared them to the picks of my wife Lisa, my sister in law Debbie, my sons Matty and Aidan, a coin toss and which direction my fish Red swam.

With the Division Series over, let’s see how we all did.

SULLY’S PICKS

PHILLIES over REDS
GIANTS over BRAVES
YANKEES over TWINS
RAYS over RANGERS

3 out of 4



SULLY’S WIFE LISA’S PICKS

REDS over PHILLIES
GIANTS over BRAVES
YANKEES over TWINS
RANGERS over RAYS

3 out of 4


SULLY’S SISTER IN LAW DEBBIE’S PICKS

PHILLIES over REDS
GIANTS over BRAVES
TWINS over YANKEES
RAYS over RANGERS

2 out of 4

SULLY’S 5 YEAR OLD SON AIDAN’S PICKS

REDS over PHILLIES
GIANTS over BRAVES
YANKEES over TWINS
RAYS over RANGERS

2 out of 4



SULLY’S 5 YEAR OLD SON MATTEO’S PICKS

PHILLIES over REDS
GIANTS over BRAVES
TWINS over YANKEES
RANGERS over TWINS

3 out of 4



COIN TOSS RESULTS

PHILLIES over REDS
GIANTS over BRAVES
TWINS over YANKEES
RANGERS over RAYS

3 out of 4

So no perfect ones… except for one…

SULLY’S FISH RED’S PICKS

PHILLIES over REDS
GIANTS over BRAVES
YANKEES over TWINS
RANGERS over RAYS

4 out of 4

That’s right folks… my FISH beat us all!
My FISH made all the right picks.

Do you know how humiliating it is to have your picks beaten by a fish?

To remind you, I held a logo for each team on either side of the tank… and which ever direction he went is where I recorded his pick.

He usually swam this way or that… but when I put the Rays and the Rangers logos up, he paused… then looked up at me and asked “Wait, how many starts is Cliff Lee getting?”

SULLY vs. A FISH

Earlier this month made my picks for the post season series... as did my wife.

When I made MY picks, I compared them to the picks of my kids (who just liked the sounds of certain teams) my sister in law (who was more interested in which players were vegans) a coin flip (always reliable) and my fish, Red.

When Red made his choices, I held up a picture of the logo of each team playing in the series and I saw which direction he swam in.

Well so far each of MY picks have been right.
And so have Red's picks.

We both picked the Yankees... we both picked the Phillies... we both picked the Giants.

But here's the rub.

I picked Tampa Bay over the Rangers.
Red picked the Rangers over Tampa Bay.

So tonight is the rubber game.

Oh yeah, it means a lot to the Rays and Rangers... either a chance to have home field advantage in the ALCS or go home.

But think about it from MY point of view.
This is my chance to pick all four series correctly. Something I haven't done in literally YEARS!

And if I fail, I will have lost to a fish.

It's one thing to lose to the chance of a coin flip, or the silliness of my kids, or the randomness of my wife or sister in law's picks.

But to lose to a fish... it is something I can not bear.

So like Santiago or Quint, I am obsessed defeating a fish.
Is it a healthy?
No.

Is it luck?


"No. I am not ... lucky. I am not lucky anymore."

"The hell with luck," the boy said. "I’ll bring the luck with me."


(That's right, Mo Fo's... I'm quoting Hemmingway.)

My picks... my sister in law's picks... my kid's picks... a coin toss and a fish

The playoffs are starting in less than an hour and it is time to make my official picks.
Now my picks tend to suck... despite my following EVERY team in baseball and thinking way too much about, my powers of prediction leave a lot to be desired.

So this year I am comparing my picks to Debbie Zambetti, my wonderful Sister in Law and a health and nutrition counselor who maintains a wonderful website about food and health that you should check out NOW!

I'll also be getting the picks of my twin 5 year old boys (who don't follow baseball except in an abstract "I like what daddy likes" way).

I'll be comparing my picks to a coin toss.

And also will be getting the picks from Red... our fish. I put a logo of each team next to his tank... which ever one he swam to will be his pick.

So let's compare.

SULLY'S
OFFICIAL PLAYOFF PICKS

American League Division Series

TAMPA BAY RAYS defeat TEXAS RANGERS 3 games to 1
NEW YORK YANKEES defeat MINNESOTA TWINS 3 games to 2

National League Division Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat CINCINNATI REDS 3 games to 0
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat ATLANTA BRAVES 3 games to 2

American League Championship Series

TAMPA BAY RAYS defeat NEW YORK YANKEES 4 games to 3

National League Championship Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 4 games to 1

World Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat TAMPA BAY RAYS 4 games to 2


SULLY'S 5 YEAR OLD SON
AIDAN'S OFFICIAL PLAYOFF PICKS


American League Division Series

TAMPA BAY RAYS defeat TEXAS RANGERS 3 games to 1
NEW YORK YANKEES defeat MINNESOTA TWINS 3 games to o

National League Division Series

CINCINNATI REDS defeat PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 3 games to 2
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat ATLANTA BRAVES 3 games to 1

American League Championship Series

TAMPA BAY RAYS defeat NEW YORK YANKEES 4 games t0 3

National League Championship Series

CINCINNATI REDS defeat SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 4 games to 0

World Series
TAMPA BAY RAYS defeat CINCINNATI REDS 4 games to 3

SULLY'S 5 YEAR OLD SON MATTEO'S
OFFICIAL PLAYOFF PICKS


American League Division Series

TEXAS RANGERS defeat TAMPA BAY RAYS 3 games to 2
MINNESOTA TWINS defeat NEW YORK YANKEES 3 games to 2

National League Division Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat CINCINNATI REDS 3 games to 2
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat ATLANTA BRAVES 3 games to 1

American League Championship Series
MINNESOTA TWINS defeat TEXAS RANGERS 4 games to 3

National League Championship Series
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 4 games to 2

World Series

MINNESOTA TWINS defeat PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 4 games to 3

SULLY'S SISTER IN LAW DEBBIE ZAMBETTI'S
OFFICIAL PLAYOFF PICKS


American League Division Series

TAMPA BAY RAYS defeat TEXAS RANGERS 3 games to 1
MINNESOTA TWINS defeat NEW YORK YANKEES 3 games to 2

National League Division Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat CINCINNATI REDS 3 games to 0
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat ATLANTA BRAVES 3 games to 2

American League Championship Series

MINNESOTA TWINS defeat TAMPA BAY RAYS 4 games to 3

National League Championship Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 4 games to 1

World Series

MINNESOTA TWINS defeat PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 4 games to 3

OFFICIAL PLAYOFF PICKS
BASED ON A COIN FLIP


American League Division Series

TEXAS RANGERS defeat TAMPA BAY RAYS 3 games to 2
MINNESOTA TWINS defeat NEW YORK YANKEES 3 games to 2

National League Division Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat CINCINNATI REDS 3 games to 2
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat ATLANTA BRAVES 3 games to 1

American League Championship Series

MINNESOTA TWINS defeat TEXAS RANGERS 4 games to 3

National League Championship Series

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 4 games to 3

World Series

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat MINNESOTA TWINS 4 games to 1

SULLY'S FISH RED'S
OFFICIAL PLAYOFF PICKS


American League Division Series

TEXAS RANGERS defeat TAMPA BAY RAYS 3 games to 2
NEW YORK YANKEES defeat MINNESOTA TWINS 3 games to 1

National League Division Series

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES defeat CINCINNATI REDS 3 games to 2
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat ATLANTA BRAVES 3 games to 1

American League Championship Series

TEXAS RANGERS defeat NEW YORK YANKEES 4 games to 2

National League Championship Series

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS defeat PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 4 games to 2

World Series
TEXAS RANGERS defeat SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 4 games to 3

Now keep in mind we all used different methods for our picks.
I watched baseball all year and poured over the stats.

My sons picked by how they liked the sound of the names.

My sister in law believes the entire balance of the playoffs will be tilted based on how many vegans are on each team. She also predicts the World Series will end with both teams crying.

The coin is just chance.

And Red the fish swam to one side of the bowl towards one logo I held up or the other side where the other logo would be.

And when you think of it... they are all equally valid methods to picking a winner.

(Let's hope my picks are better than my fish's!)

My wife is picking the Giants... her logic is sound

Every year I ask my loving and adoring wife for her picks in the playoffs. In 2006 she got every single playoff series correct (including each of the Cardinals upsets.)

The thing is that she doesn't follow baseball. Her logic isn't always sound (she picked the Cardinals over the Tigers because Tony LaRussa is involved in animal shelters and Jim Leyland smokes.) But who cares about the method if the results are good?

So today, the day after our 7th wedding anniversary, we made the 2010 picks official.

SULLY:
So honey, first we need the A. L. picks.

SULLY'S WIFE:
The Al? The Al who?

SULLY:
The American League picks.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Well I liked The Town, so I am going with the Red Sox.

SULLY:
That's great honey, but the Red Sox aren't in it.

SULLY'S WIFE:
OK so who is playing?

SULLY:
The Texas Rangers versus the Tampa Bay Rays.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Bay Rays? Is that like Fay Wray? What kind of name is that?

SULLY:
They are playing Texas.

SULLY'S WIFE:
I am all about Friday Night Lights. So I have to go with Texas.

SULLY:
OK... next is the Twins versus the Yankees.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Well I'm a mother of Twins. I'm leaning towards the Twins. Who are the managers?

SULLY:
Ron Gardenhire manages the Twins. He's a baseball lifer. And Joe Girardi manages the Yankees. He got braces because his daughter got braces and they are doing it together.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Awwww. That's great. Braces trump Twins. Yankees win.

SULLY:
OK, you have Rangers vs. Yankees. To the National League. Phillies versus Reds.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Our fish is named Red.

SULLY:
Yes he is.

SULLY'S WIFE:
You've got to go with Red. Reds win.

SULLY:
OK, Giants versus Braves.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Got to go with Poppy's team. Giants.

SULLY:
Fair enough. So let's go to the next round. New York vs. Texas.

SULLY'S WIFE:
This is baseball right?

SULLY:
Yes, we are talking about baseball.

SULLY'S WIFE:
I guess if Friday Night Lights were baseball it would be Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday Night Lights... that's too many lights. Tell me something about them.

SULLY:
The Yankees are the defending Champs. The Rangers have never won anything.

SULLY'S WIFE:
The underdog! I like that. I am going for the Panthers.

SULLY:
The who?

SULLY'S WIFE:
The Dillon Panthers. They are from Texas. I am all about Texas now.

SULLY:
OK, San Francisco versus Cincinnati.

SULLY'S WIFE:
I thought we already did them.

SULLY:
This is the next round.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Oh jeez. Tell me about them.

SULLY:
You've got the City by the Bay versus the Queen City.

SULLY'S WIFE:
The WHAT?

SULLY:
The Queen City. Cincinnati.

SULLY'S WIFE:
If there is a Queen City, it is San Francisco. What else?

SULLY:
The Reds manager used to be the Giants manager.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Right. Dusty Springfield. He had his kid run on the field.

SULLY:
Yeah, during the World Series. The Giants have the long haired pot smoking pitcher, Lincecum. And the yoga hippie pitcher Barry Zito.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Yoga hippies! Got to go with Yoga Hippies! Giants win.

SULLY:
OK, that's a San Francisco vs. Texas World Series.

SULLY'S WIFE:
I'm not feeling it. I don't even care enough for it to be a Sophie's Choice. It's like choosing between canola oil and sunflower oil. Nothing is Olive Oil.

SULLY:
Just pick one.

SULLY'S WIFE:
You aren't giving me enough. Is there a big divorce or something?

SULLY:
That's the Dodgers.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Do they have mascots?

SULLY:
I think so.

SULLY'S WIFE:
Show me the mascots.

[Sully looks up the Rangers mascot... who is evidently named "Captain." He shows the picture of Captain to his wife. She looks it over.]




SULLY'S WIFE:
Is that a camel?

SULLY:
I'm not sure.

SULLY'S WIFE:
What the hell is it?

SULLY:
It could be a horse.

SULLY'S WIFE:
It looks like a camel. How about the Giants?

[Sully looks up the Giants mascot, a seal named Lou Seal. He shows the picture to his wife.]














SULLY'S WIFE:
Awww. You see that LOOKS like a seal! It doesn't look ANYTHING like a camel.

SULLY:
You are right.

SULLY'S WIFE:
I'm going with the Giants. I like Lou Seal.



So there you have it folks...
The San Francisco Giants will defeat the Texas Rangers in the World Series.
Why?

Because Friday Night Lights is a great show and the Giants mascot doesn't look like a camel.

And THAT is the best playoff preview analysis you will EVER hear!

I am very good at picking who WON'T win the NL Central!

Everyone in the planet seemed to be picking the defending NL Central champ to cruise to another October date... everyone except your pal Sully.

Your Pal Sully took a look at the Cincinnati Reds and thought "Hey! THIS team is exciting, packed with young talent and the defending champ is overrated."

So before the season began, I stuck my neck out and said "THE IS THE YEAR FOR THE CINCINNATI REDS! I don't care what the experts say!"

Quite a prediction, isn't it?
One problem.

I made that prediction for the 2009 season.

Everyone and their cow were predicting the Cubs were going to win their third straight division... so many so that when I DIDN'T pick them, I had to write another post to justify my prediction.

Now I DID predict the actual division champion, the Cardinals, would make the playoffs. I picked them as the Wild Card team, not the Division Champs.

Well THIS year, everyone seemed to think the Cardinals were the no brainer pick to repeat as NL Central champs... again, everyone but your pal Sully.

And look at how the Cardinals are doing. Today the Cardinals got swept by the lowly Astros and fallen 7 games back in the loss column of the Reds.

So who did I pick? The Brewers!

Hey, I thought their pitching was going to be better and I liked their line up.

You know what? Pick the Brewers for NEXT year... I tend to be a year EARLY for the party.